Speech by Mr Goh Chok Tong, Senior Minister, at the Marine Parade National Day Dinner, 02 August 2009, 8.00 pm at Roland Restaurant

“Challenge for the Next Generation – Dealing with the Perils of Success”

Friends and Residents of Marine Parade

1. First, let me wish you a Happy National Day. This year is also the 50^th anniversary of our self-government. We have achieved a lot in 50 years. But more importantly, can we sustain Singapore’s economic growth and prosperity for another 20, 30 years, i.e. another generation? I ask because our success creates its own set of problems. I call them the perils of success. In my view, these perils are even more challenging than the ones I was faced with as Prime Minister. The next generation will have a tough time dealing with them. So tonight, instead of dwelling on our achievements, I want to highlight ten challenges confronting the next generation of Singaporeans and leaders.

Success creates its own problems

2. Let me start with the economy. Our economy has grown 125 times from $2 billion 50 years ago to $250 billion today. We have overtaken our former colonial master, the UK, in GDP per capita. Singapore is now ranked 4^th globally in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms [1]. UK is ranked 18^th. Fifty years ago, one Sterling Pound fetched nine Singapore Dollars. Today, one Pound exchanges for less than three Singapore Dollars.

3. First challenge for the next generation: Can you maintain Singapore’s high economic growth and keep on improving on our standard of living? Just remember, the world is a very competitive place and our economy has matured. If UK can slip from the top of the chart in GDP per capita, so can Singapore.

4. In the last 50 years, our quality of life has improved by leaps and bounds. Let me illustrate with my personal example. In 1959, thousands of Singaporeans lived in slums and squalor. I was more fortunate. I lived in a rented house but it had no electricity or modern sanitation. Today, more than 90% of Singaporeans own their homes, with electricity and modern sanitation.

5. Second challenge but this one for the leaders: How do you convince Singaporeans that their lives will get better when they are already living in good-quality public and private housing? For my generation, it was a big jump in our standard of living when we moved into 3-room HDB flats with modern amenities.

6. For many years, I cycled 10 kilometres daily to Raffles Institution from my house in Pasir Panjang. That meant another 10 kilometres back, usually in the hot sun. Sometimes, I was caught in the rain. Today, students travel in air-conditioned comfort by cars, buses or MRT. Even when they walk they have link-ways to protect them from sun and rain.

7. Third challenge and question for the Transport Minister: How do you satisfy the transport demands of the next generation for comfort, convenience, congestion-free travel and punctuality of services and their expectation of affordable fares, ERP and parking charges?

8. We live not only better lives, but also longer and healthier lives. My grandfather and father never made it to 60. I am thankful that I am still around at 68. When we attained self-government, infectious diseases were a major cause of death. My father died of tuberculosis at a young age of 36. We have since cleaned up our streets, improved sanitation and food hygiene, and established a national vaccination programme. Today, infectious diseases make up only a small proportion of deaths. But other diseases have taken over, like cancer, heart diseases, diabetes and kidney failure. These diseases are associated with an affluent lifestyle. They are more expensive to treat.

9. Fourth challenge and this one for the Health Minister: Can you stamp out these diseases the way we did with infectious diseases like TB, malaria, typhoid and polio? Can you keep health care costs down and affordable?

10. When we set up our CPF in 1955, our life expectancy was 60, five years more than the retirement age of 55. But our life expectancy has since risen to 80, 18 years more than our current retirement age of 62. And with continuing advances in health care and medical science, we can expect to live to 90 in the near future. If we live till 90, we would probably have to work till 75 to have enough savings for a cosy retirement of 15 years.

11. Fifth challenge addressed to the Minister for Manpower and Secretary-General of NTUC: Can you design a new training programme, Workfare and Job Credit Scheme for grandparents and maybe even great-grandparents?

12. To compound the problem, our modernisation has also caused our birth rate to plummet. In 1980, our ever married women ^[2] in their 40s had an average of 4.4 children. As women became more educated and more women joined the workforce, the average number of children dropped to 2.1 by 1997. We started SDU and SDS. We offered baby bonuses and encouraged a more family-friendly environment. They helped. The good news is that the average number of children of ever married women has stabilised at 2.1 for some ten years now. The bad news is that it is only the ever married Singaporeans who are replacing themselves. As a whole population, we are not, because many of our women are not getting married. This is the main reason for our low Total Fertility Rate of 1.28 today. We have educated our women well and they have careers; with careers, come financial independence. Gone are the days when women saw marrying well and having children as a mark of success. This is a good example of progress creating new problems.

13. Sixth challenge for parents and the young: What will get our young to marry and have children? Any creative ideas on procreation?

14. The combination of a longer life span and lower fertility rates leads to a fast ageing population. Today, 9% of our population is over 65 years of age. By 2030, it will more than double to 20%. I can already see this ageing population in Marine Parade.

15. Seventh challenge and questions for the Chairman of the Ministerial Committee on Ageing: How do we support so many senior citizens? How will we look after our parents and grandparents? Will you build more community hospitals, nursing and old folk homes, and keep them affordable?

16. Another consequence of our success is that we are fast running out of land. In the last fifty years, we have already expanded our land area by more than 20%. Mind you, this is not done through conquest but through land reclamation within our territorial waters.

17. Eighth challenge and some questions for the Minister for National Development: How much more land can we reclaim over the next 50 years? As our population and economy continue to grow, how will we deal with the challenge of limited land for economic expansion while preserving sufficient space for housing and recreational needs? Will Singapore be over crowded?

18. Now, let me move on to education. When I graduated 45 years ago, there were very few scholarships for overseas studies. Today, there are hundreds. And hundreds more go overseas on parents’ scholarships. Our top students can easily compete with the best anywhere. But our great success in education is also increasing the likelihood of a potential brain drain. We give our young the very best education, and prepare them to be world-ready, entrepreneurial and internationally mobile. Our bright students will be sought after internationally. We are already seeing a trend of more Singaporeans not returning after having studied overseas. I expect this trend to continue and more will settle abroad for work, marriage or other reasons. If more choose to do so, our talent pyramid will be chipped away at the top, with serious consequences for our long-term survival as a nation. I consider this one of the most serious challenges which will threaten Singapore’s achievements in future. This challenge cannot be left to a future generation to resolve. It has to be solved now.

19. Ninth challenge and this one for the Prime Minister, Minister for Education, schools and families: We have to accept that more Singaporeans will study and work overseas and that some may settle abroad. But how do we bond them to Singapore, physically if possible, and if not, at least emotionally. How do we ensure that most will return home and contribute to Singapore which gave them the foundation for their success? How do we ensure that there will always be a core of honest, able and dedicated Singaporeans to look after the country and their fellowmen?

20. It is not my intention tonight to spoil the mood of our celebration by asking all these questions. What I hope to achieve is to provoke you to think through my key point that in our success are embedded the seeds of new challenges. We have to attend to these perils now even though the brunt of the problems will be borne by the next generation of Singaporeans.

Our underlying strengths for continued success

21. I believe the next generation can overcome these new challenges created by our success. They have at least four factors in their favour.

22. First, we are bequeathing to them ample financial resources. Our healthy reserves will give them the room for policy options to deal with the problems I mentioned earlier, the way we dealt with the current recession with the Jobs Credit Scheme and other measures.

23. Second, how Singapore will perform in future will depend very much on our talent and skills pyramid. On the human resource front, we are continuing to raise the height of our talent pyramid by investing in a 4^th publicly funded university. We are also setting up the Singapore Institute of Applied Technology which would provide external degrees as an upgrade path for our polytechnic graduates. We are building up R&D capabilities to do cutting-edge research in selected fields with growth potential. If we can out-educate and out-innovate others, create challenging jobs and build a vibrant and gracious society, our oasis will root Singaporeans here and draw in others. As for not reproducing ourselves, to safeguard our future, we are topping up our population through selective immigration of skilled and talented foreigners.

24. Third, we have forged a cohesive society and a national identity from a largely immigrant population of different races, languages, religions and cultures. After the racial and communal tensions of our early years, we have become united by this land that provides equal opportunities for all, where one has the best chance of getting ahead in life so long as one is willing to work hard, regardless of race or religion. We are united by this land where workers, employers and the government work hand-in-hand to tackle unemployment and to create good jobs and good returns for all. We are united by this land that allows everyone to be as successful as his talent and hard work allow him and where we share the fruits of growth with those who lag behind.

25. However, because we have had racial and religious harmony for four decades, we may take the current social cohesion and religious harmony for granted. This is the last and tenth challenge I have for you tonight: how do we ensure that Singaporeans of different faiths will continue to mix with one another and respect one another’s faith?

26. The next generation must never forget that no matter how harmonious our multi-racial, multi-religious society is today, ours is a society with inherent cracks. We have successfully glued the various pieces together through purposeful, practical integration policies but the fault-lines remain. We have policies to ensure that our public housing estates and schools remain key common secular space where people of all religions and races interact and mix; and where nobody is made to feel uncomfortable whatever his colour or beliefs.

27. The government regards religion as a positive force in our society. Religion offers comfort and solace to the grieving; bestows purpose and meaning to life; and provides spiritual guidance to help us cope with a fast-changing world. But the government itself is secular with Ministers belonging to various religions. It is not a Christian, Buddhist, Taoist or Islamic government. It is a government for all beliefs, including those without a religion. This will remain unchanged. Hence, as a principle, public institutions or private organisations which receive public funding are not permitted to impose or advocate any religious belief or practice. This must remain the foundation of our inter-religious harmony.

28. Singaporeans are getting more religious. Looking ahead, the next generation must watch out for the emergence of compartmentalisation of our society by religion. With rising religiosity, people of like religion may, perhaps unwittingly, begin to form religious enclaves. This applies to adherents of all religions be they Christians, Muslims, Buddhists or Hindus. It is understandable why they prefer to mix only with people of like faith. But the flip side is that they will socialise less with those of other faiths. If we do not make a conscious effort to mix, over time, Singapore will be a society compartmentalised by religion. The potential for religious misunderstanding and conflict is great.

29. We must also remember that in Singapore, rising religiosity which encroaches on our common secular space, or worse, the practice of other religions, must result in a push-back by the rest. We do not have a serious problem now. Our emotions are calm, our minds are clear and our hearts are open. Hence, it is timely to remind ourselves of the basis of our harmony, and what we must do to safeguard it. This way, we can avert potential problems and maintain the trust and tolerance that bind our various communities together.

30. The fourth factor for my optimism is our system of producing an outstanding political leadership that has the will, integrity, ability, commitment and dedication to look after the interest of the people and the future of our country. There is a younger team in charge who are constantly scanning the horizon for potential problems, working the ground and acquiring experience and connecting with all Singaporeans. They have shown themselves to be not only innovative and creative in solving problems, but also courageous and forward looking, for example, in evolving our political system to meet the aspirations of the next generation. And they are now actively building up the next team of leaders to work with the next generation of Singaporeans on the challenges created by our success.

Conclusion

31. In the last fifty years, we have gotten rid of squalor and poverty, and brought about racial and religious harmony. We have emerged with first world standards of living and created a strong Singapore identity. This is an achievement that we can be justifiably proud of. But we must not be carried away and think that we can now fly on auto-pilot. In fact, many challenges which are more daunting than those we have faced before remain, and more will arise. As we celebrate our 44^th National Day and 50^th anniversary of self-government, let us humbly reflect on how we have succeeded, learn from our early pain and struggle as a fledgling nation, and stay together as one united people to build an even better future.

32. I wish all of you good health and a bright future!

The Straits Times - SM: Guard against religious enclaves

03 August 2009

Rising religiosity may lead people to mix only with others of same faith

By Clarissa Oon

SENIOR Minister Goh Chok Tong sees a potential danger arising from Singaporeans becoming more religious.

It can lead to people of the same faith mixing only with each other, which over time could result in 'compartmentalisation of our society by religion', he said.

Should this happen, there is a great possibility of religious misunderstanding and conflict, he said at a National Day dinner in Marine Parade yesterday, in a speech on the challenges facing the Singapore of tomorrow.

Mr Goh's signalling of the need for social cohesion and inter-religious harmony is the second in two days by a top government leader.

Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng did so on Saturday, citing conflicts outside Singapore such as last month's violent clashes between Uighur Muslims and Han Chinese in China's Xinjiang province.

Their messages reinforce a concern flagged in the past month by a few other members of the Cabinet.

Yesterday, Mr Goh spelt out the fundamentals that must stay un-changed for Singapore to guard against fomenting tensions.

It has a secular government which represents Singaporeans of 'all beliefs, including those without a religion'.

'Hence, as a principle, public institutions or private organisations which receive public funding are not permitted to impose or advocate any religious belief or practice.

'This must remain the foundation of our inter-religious harmony,' he stressed.

For that reason too, there are policies ensuring public housing estates and schools remain common secular spaces, 'where nobody is made to feel uncomfortable whatever his colour or beliefs'.

Mr Goh pointed out that the Government sees religion as a positive force in society, giving 'spiritual guidance to help us cope with a fast-changing world'.

However, rising religiosity may lead people, unwittingly, to form religious enclaves, unless a conscious effort is made to continue socialising with people of other faiths, he said.

If such religiosity 'encroaches on our common secular space, or worse, the practice of other religions, (it) must result in a push-back by others'.

The theme of growing religious fervour made up a substantial part of Mr Goh's speech, which made the key point that in Singapore's successes 'are embedded the seeds of new challenges'.

The economy, for one, has grown 125 times from $2 billion half a century ago to $250 billion today.

This dramatic growth has given rise to new socio-economic challenges.

Mr Goh identified 10, to be borne largely by the next generation.

They range from maintaining high economic growth to social issues such as minimising urban congestion.

He also cited other problems, such as raising the birth rate and providing affordable care and jobs for the future elderly in Singapore.

However, Mr Goh is confident that the next generation can tackle the new challenges.

They have four factors in their favour: Ample financial resources, a growing talent pool, strong political leadership and a cohesive society enjoying racial and religious harmony for four decades.

But Mr Goh warned against taking it for granted, saying 'ours is a society with inherent cracks'.

Grassroots leaders interviewed shared his concern.

However, Residents' Committee member Edward Chua, 49, cautioned against overstating it because 'religious people can be trusted to exercise their faith responsibly and for the good of society'.

On the other hand, Mr R. Kalaichelvan, treasurer of the Marine Parade Community Complex, felt 'we must send a clear message to everyone that we have a secular society, and religion can only be practised in the private space'.

The exception would be if there are opportunities where religious groups can work together, then they should be brought into the common space, said the 51-year-old.

clare@sph.com.sg

(With thanks to SPH - StraitsTimes.com)

Note : No reproduction or downloading of this Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) article is allowed in any medium. Permission has to be obtained from SPH.

The Straits Times - 10 challenges for the next generation: SM

03 August 2009

Success creates its own problems, said Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong yesterday when he spelt out the 10 challenges facing the next generation. He highlighted them by posing questions to Cabinet ministers, families and the young.

1 High growth:

Amid global competition, can you maintain Singapore's high economic growth and keep on improving our standard of living?

In 1959, thousands of Singaporeans lived in slums and squalor. Today, more than 90 per cent own their homes.

2 Life will get better:

How do you, as leaders, convince Singaporeans of that when they are already living in good-quality public and private housing? 3 Transport: How does the Transport Minister satisfy the demands for comfort, convenience, congestion-free travel and punctuality of services and expectation of affordable fares, ERP and parking charges?4 Health care: Can the Health Minister stamp out diseases linked to an affluent lifestyle, such as diabetes and cancer? And keep health-care costs down and affordable?

If we live till 90, we would probably have to work till 75 to have enough savings for a cosy retirement of 15 years.

5 Worker training:

Can the Manpower Minister and the labour chief design a new training programme, Workfare (a wage supplement for working low-income Singaporeans) and a Jobs Credit wage subsidy scheme for grandparents and maybe even great-grandparents?6 More babies: What will get our young to marry and have children? Any creative ideas on procreation, Mr Goh asks parents and the young.7 Ageing: Today, 9 per cent of our population are over 65 years of age. By 2030, it will more than double to 20 per cent.

How do we support so many senior citizens, he asks the chairman of the Ministerial Committee on Ageing.

How will we look after our parents and grandparents? Will you build more community hospitals, nursing and old folk's homes, and keep them affordable?

8 Scarce land:

In the last 50 years, land area has been expanded by more than 20 per cent, through reclamation.

How much more land can Singapore reclaim over the next 50 years, he asks the Minister for National Development.

As the population and the economy grow, how will Singapore deal with the potential over-crowding problem?

9 Education:

Bright students will be sought after internationally, chipping away at Singapore's talent pyramid at the top. Mr Goh considers this one of the most serious threats to Singapore's long-term survival and says it has to be solved now.

His questions for the Prime Minister, Education Minister, schools and families: How do we bond students going abroad to Singapore, physically if possible, and if not, at least emotionally? How do we ensure most will return home and contribute to Singapore? How do we ensure there will always be a core of honest, able and dedicated Singaporeans to look after the country and their fellow men?

10 Religious harmony:

For four decades, Singapore has enjoyed racial and religious harmony. How do the people of Singapore ensure that Singaporeans of different faiths will continue to mix with one another and respect one another's faith?

(With thanks to SPH - StraitsTimes.com)

Note : No reproduction or downloading of this Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) article is allowed in any medium. Permission has to be obtained from SPH.

Lianhe Zaobao - 国务资政吴作栋:我国未来面对10大挑战

03 August 2009

● 周殊钦 报道

国家的发展与进步,解决了贫穷落后的问题,却为新加坡下一代制造了新的难题。国务资政吴作栋昨晚向民众分析这些问题时,列出国家所面对的十大挑战,然而由于自建国以来已积累了相当多有助推动国家继续取得成功的有利因素,他仍然对我国的前景保持乐观。

他在马林百列区的国庆晚宴上以华英语讲话时,列举令他在严峻的挑战中仍充满信心的四大利好因素,即国家拥有雄厚的财力;人才金字塔越叠越高;社会凝聚力牢固以及特有的政治更新制度,确保政府领导人才辈出。

然而,他指出虽然我国在培养人才方面取得一定的成果,但是全球化的影响也促使这些拥有世界观的顶尖人才被其他国家挖角,加剧了政府最为担忧的人才流失问题。

"我们已经见到越来越多的学生出国深造后不再回来。这一趋势必将持续下去,而越来越多国人也会因工作,婚姻或其他原因定居海外。如果有更多人选择这么做,我们的人才金字塔的顶端将被削弱,对国家的长期生存造成严重影响。我认为这是个影响新加坡未来成就的最严峻挑战,不能留给下一代去解决。我们现在就必须加以解决。"

吴资政在千人国庆晚宴上围绕着"成功可能为将来埋下衰败的种子"这个主题发表看法时,还向民众和各部门的部长抛出另外九个可能危及新加坡发展的重大挑战,希望大家一起思考。这些挑战包括政府如何满足国人对交通、医疗服务等关系到生活素质的需求;如何鼓励年轻人结婚、生育;如何应对日渐老龄化的社会所面对的各方面问题;如何确保有足够的土地来满足国家发展所需;以及国家能否继续维持高度的经济增长,并改善人们的生活水平等。

针对政府领导人所关注的种族与宗教问题,他指出尽管我国的人口结构从种族、文化、语言、宗教等方面来看极为多元化,但是过去50年走过的自治与独立岁月,已证明任人唯贤的政策已成功将我国团结成一个具高度凝聚力的社会,并在民间形成了强烈的国家身份认同。

然而,他也担心长期的和谐可能令人误以为各族和平共处已成常态,而把社会凝聚与宗教和谐视为理所当然。因此,他在部分国人对宗教日益虔诚的情况下,也特别提醒人们各族和信仰不同宗教的社群之间所存在的先天裂缝,是无法透过扩大各族互动的世俗空间加以彻底消除的。

"展望未来,下一代必须提防社会出现被宗教划分的现象。随着笃信宗教的国人与日俱增,不管是基督教徒、回教徒、佛教徒还是印度教徒,信仰同一宗教的信众可能会无意间形成宗教社群。信众喜欢群聚的原因不难理解,但是这一发展的消极影响是人们将减少同其他宗教的信徒来往,如果我们不有意识地促进各族群之的往来,随着时间的推移,新加坡将成为一个受宗教划分的社会,形成潜在的宗教误解与冲突。"

尽管前路面对艰巨的挑战,但是新加坡仅用了两代人的时间,便从发展中国家跻身第一世界国家行列的骄人成绩,也成了推动国家继续取得成功的有利因素。

吴资政以数据加以说明时指出,当前的全球经济危机正衬托出我国无论是在财力还是人力资源方面,都有出类拔萃的表现,而为保住国人的工作而推出的雇用补贴计划(Jobs Credit Scheme)以及教育方面的投资,包括设立第四所大学等,都将使我国将来处在有利的位置。

另外,我国特有的持续物色最佳人才为国服务的前瞻性政治更新制度,也为国家造就了一批又一批永远都在环顾潜在问题,及早以创新方案加以解决的年轻领导人。最近的选举制度改革,除了满足年轻一代的期望,更可确保我国一直都由时刻以人民福祉和国家前途为依归的杰出政治领导人来带领,以在国际竞争中保持领先地位。

(With thanks to SPH - Lianhe Zaobao.com)

Note : No reproduction or downloading of this Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) article is allowed in any medium. Permission has to be obtained from SPH.

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